油价下跌并不预示着经济危机的来临沙发革

据道琼斯10月20日消息，雷普索尔公司首席经济学家Pedro Antonio Merino Garcia在普氏能源资讯于新加坡举办的石油峰会上表示，全球石油市场之前出现的三次期货溢价分别发生在2008年全球经济危机镗杆、2006年美国次贷危机和上世纪90年代末期亚洲金融危机期间。

他表示冷冻机组，这令市场怀疑当前出现的期货溢价是否意味着即将出现经济危机。期货溢价是指短期油价低于远期油价。国际货币基金组织（IMF）表示，出现经济衰退的可能性已上升，但Garcia称他并不认为即将出现一场全球经济危机。当前的油价下跌更多是因供应过剩，而非危机期间经常出现的需求大幅下滑所致。

庞晓华摘译自道琼斯

原文如下：

Oil Price Drop Doesn't Herald Econ潜孔钻机omic Crisis: Economist

[Dow Jones] The last three times the global oil market was in a contango were the global economic crisis of 2008, the U.S. subprime mortgage crisis of 2006 and the Asian financial crisis in the late nineties, Pedro Antonio Merino Garcia, chief economist at Repsol S.A. said at Platts' oil summit in Singapore.

This raises the question of whether the current contango in oil indicates a coming economic crisis, he says. A contango is a situation in which the near-term price of oil is depressed relative to future prices. The IMF says the risk of a recession has risen, but Garcia says he doesn't think a global economic crisis is imminent. That's bec兵服ause the current oil price drop is driven more by oversupply, than by the large fall in demand typically seen during a crisis.